A decade following the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that divided the nation and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters drifted into Brexit and the same might transpire with a national vote on a unified Ireland, initiating disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unprepared for a possibly fraught and monumental public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can build support rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains extremely volatile."
Book Publication Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have examined the political, financial and cultural arguments for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, unclear proposal whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the possibility, making it uncertain when or if there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric for and against unity has hidden the shortage of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the actual thinking which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in academia but very few elected officials or campaigners want to engage with the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Both writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and social figures, past examples and governmental frameworks.
Arguments range over identity markers, duties, medical care, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the concept that there might be good arguments on either side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but oppose increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should determine what the offer from pro-unification movements is other than just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it could happen abruptly. "It is possible just a reckless or a bad or a negligent government minister who declares: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will succeed on this issue and somebody will eventually not succeed but each side has got important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, urged the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It's a UK matter as much as it is an Irish issue."
