Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency triggered by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "notable headway" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are waged: optimistic declarations are released from multiple capitals. Significant resources is devoted on containing particular approaches. By night, Russian leadership clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "resolution".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity provided through timely intelligence. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles flew past – advanced fighter aircraft provided to Ukraine by European allies.
Moments later, Kyiv's missile defense activated: defensive missiles deployed against a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably supplied through partner states. Every launch shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from devastation and another blackout.
Ongoing Risks
Not long after, a heavy machine gun engaged a unmanned aircraft in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still maintained normal activities – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are clearly incapable to substitute in the near term.
Ineffective Peace Efforts
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and profound anxiety – and briefly redirected concern from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from US leadership adheres to the same pattern: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, manages to fend off. They contain the crisis but never actually win the battle. This trend will, certainly, continue.
Strategic Calculations
It is tempting to accuse particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration operates on a assumption familiar among seasoned negotiators: you cannot secure via talks what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is impossible to compel Moscow to relinquish the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's south or east.
The issue is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the months ahead.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Moscow is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still persist, progressively conceding lives and land but averting a total frontline collapse until situations evolve in its benefit.
Existing Situation
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a ceasefire. Now, individual motivations are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and secure international recognition, and Ukrainian leadership's twin challenges – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their attention does not switch to internal issues. And although their mission will now be significantly challenging after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These two forces are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a just a single week to terminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, opposition by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, latest revelations, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and demonstrate specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither political nor armed coercion will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's ability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the coming months, primarily depend on continued Western support.
